Wednesday, May 28, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1071

ACUS11 KWNS 281733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281732
IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-281900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NV...SRN ID...NW UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281732Z - 281900Z

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN
NV..NW UT AND SRN ID OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS A LOW OVER NW UT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 60 F IN MANY AREAS AND WEAK INSTABILITY IS NOW
PRESENT WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 800 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST OBJECTIVE RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM FROM ERN NV ACROSS
NRN UT INTO SRN AND ERN ID. THIS ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT EVIDENT
ON REGIONAL MORNING SOUNDINGS /500 MB TEMPS OF -17C TO -19C/ SUGGEST
A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THIS
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/28/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...REV...

41741158 39651538 39731682 40001764 40441775 41491716
42191658 42601602 42821551 42901483 42971397 43571236
42931131

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