SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310638
INZ000-ILZ000-310845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN IL.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 310638Z - 310845Z
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN
IL...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL/GUSTS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
ESEWD DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
TIME SERIES OF RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWS AIR MASS DESTABILIZING WITH
TIME IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION...RESULTING FROM TWO PROCESSES
ACTING TO MAINTAIN MOISTURE AND STEEPEN DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...
1. LOW LEVEL WAA BOOSTING THETAE JUST ABOVE SFC AND
2. PROXIMITY TO MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP DATA OVER NWRN
IL IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CONVECTION...AND FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN IL THROUGH 12Z.
ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 500-1000
J/KG OVER MOST OF DISCUSSION AREA DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER MAY REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW THAT EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ARE ROOTED AT
GROUND LEVEL...ENABLING POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS TO REACH SFC.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE AND FCST TO REMAIN SO
THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS -- E.G. 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
40539019 41208959 40948842 40698734 40218714 39948759
39868838 40018974
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