SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310923
KSZ000-OKZ000-311200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0423 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...SMALL PART OF
N-CENTRAL/NERN OK.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 310923Z - 311200Z
TSTM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS WITHIN
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR TO SUPPORT HAIL POTENTIAL.
AS OF 09Z...ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTM HAS DEVELOPED OVER RENO COUNTY KS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS FORMING SWWD TOWARD P28 AREA...WITH IR
IMAGERY INDICATING COOLING LOW LEVEL CLOUD TOPS IN BAND EXTENDING
ESEWD ACROSS OK BORDER...CLOSE TO SFC FRONT. 09Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
DIFFUSE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT FROM NERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS NW
OK TO S-CENTRAL KS THEN EWD OVER SERN KS. CLOUD BAND IN IR IMAGERY
EXTENDING SEWD FROM S-CENTRAL KS...ACROSS NERN OK...INDICATES
ANOTHER DIFFUSE BOUNDARY ABOVE SFC THAT CONNECTS TO CONVECTIVE
REGIME ONGOING OVER OH VALLEY. LATTER BOUNDARY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
NWD 5-10 KT OVER S-CENTRAL KS WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
FARTHER SE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. VWP/PROFILER WINDS IN THIS REGION
INDICATE STG CONFLUENCE AT 850 MB OVER SAME AREA...WITH SWLY 40 KT
LLJ OVER NWRN OK BACKING TO SELY 20-30 KT EVIDENT JUST ABOVE SFC IN
HVL PROFILER. PRIND NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE NEAR-FRONTAL LIFT
AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH MUCAPES
IN 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKNESSES ARE EVIDENT IN
MIDLEVEL WINDS...50-60 KT SHEAR THROUGH CLOUD-BEARING LATER WILL AID
IN STORM ORGANIZATION.
..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
36609650 37029835 37559886 38249855 38509793 38259627
38079563 37509494 36809512 36589621
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