SWODY1
SPC AC 010541
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE SERN STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPR FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY ON
SUNDAY AND FEATURE A DEEPENING UPR TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY AND A UPR LOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. RIBBON OF MODEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MEXICAN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ARCING FROM SRN CA THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITHIN THIS JET...SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL EXIST. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/SERN STATES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THE PAC NW
TROUGH...REACHING THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
AT THE SFC...AN OLD FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW FRONT ASSOCD
WITH THE ERN TROUGH...LIKELY CONSOLIDATING FROM THE MID-ATLC
REGION/CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH. WRN END OF THIS FRONT WILL
REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
...SRN MO/AR EWD INTO THE TN VLY...
STG-SVR TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
OVER PARTS OF THE MO/AR OZARKS...BEING AIDED BY A WEAK SLY LLJ.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS...BUT
SHORT TERM MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK MCV MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF 50 KT WNW
MID-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG HEATING AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG/S OF ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TSTM
INTENSIFICATION/DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID-SOUTH WHICH WILL PROBABLY
GROW UPSCALE INTO TSTM CLUSTERS. WHILE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARY TSTM MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELL CLUSTERS/BOWS
GIVING DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY IF AN MCV CAN BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
OTHERWISE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH EQUALLY
UNIMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE LEE
TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND TAIL END OF THE E-W FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER REDEVELOPS NWD. CONSEQUENTLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
MOISTEN WITH LWR-MID 50S DEW POINTS COMMON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/E
WY/SWRN SD MOUNTAINS AND LWR-MID 60S IN THE CO/NEB PNHDL PLAINS BY
LATE AFTN. AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE WRN IMPULSE
SPREAD EWD...THE DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION. ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL STRONGLY VEER TO WLY AROUND H5...BOOSTING VERTICAL SHEAR 50+
KTS. THUS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO MCS/S THAT WILL MOVE AND/OR
DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB...WRN KS AND PERHAPS NWRN OK.
STRONGER STORMS WILL PROBABLY FAVOR A ZONE ALONG/N OF THE RETURNING
WARM FRONT FROM ERN CO INTO SWRN KS WHERE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/BOWS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
...SERN STATES/CAROLINAS...
BASE OF THE ERN STATES UPR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE RISK
OF TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SEABREEZES...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LEE
TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS SWD INTO CNTRL FL. STRONGER UPR FLOW WILL
EXIST FROM NRN/CNTRL GA/SC NWD. HERE...STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
WITH HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MERGE AND
BRIEFLY INTENSIFY. FARTHER S...TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WCOAST FL
SEABREEZE WILL BE MORE OF A PULSE-TYPE SVR VARIETY BUT MAY STILL
PRODUCE ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL.
..RACY/HURLBUT.. 06/01/2008
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