SWODY1
SPC AC 250056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF NRN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO
VALLEY...
...NRN PLAINS...
ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN ND WILL
CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IT DEVELOPS
S OF E INTO AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. 00Z BIS SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG. S/WV TROUGH IS CROSSING SRN SASKATCHEWAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL BE LESS OF FACTOR IN THE DAKOTA SEVERE STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP
SEWD. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 30-40KT FROM KS
TO SD...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WITH THE DEVELOPING MCS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD LESSEN LATER
TONIGHT AS STORMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS.
...LOWER/MID MO VALLEY...
WELL DEFINED MCV HAS MOVED INTO WRN IA WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF
STRONGER FLOW ACROSS ERN KS...NRN MO INTO WRN IL. POOL OF MOIST AND
VERY UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES FROM ERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO TO S OF MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TO THE N ACROSS FAR NRN MO/SRN IA. CURRENT
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK
GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG/ AND 30KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NOTE THE 00Z TOP SOUNDING WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000
J/KG. STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. STORM INTENSITIES WILL LIKELY SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY 06Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HOWEVER WITH A 30PLUS
KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ACCOMPANYING WARM ADVECTION...THERE WILL
BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
...OTHER AREAS...
SLIGHT HAS BEEN DROPPED IN THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
OFFSHORE AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS REGION.
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED PULSE
SEVERE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS UNTIL NOCTURNAL COOLING
WEAKENS INSTABILITY FOLLOWED BY STORM DISSIPATION LATER THIS
EVENING.
PULSE SEVERE THREAT GULF COAST IS NOW BASICALLY CONFINED TO SRN MS
WHERE JAN 00Z SOUNDING HAS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE TO
NEAR 1500 J/KG AND VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR. THESE STORMS SHOULD DROP
BELOW SEVERE SOON AFTER SUNSET.
..HALES.. 06/25/2008
..HALES.. 06/25/2008
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