DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010044
SWODY1
SPC AC 010041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2008

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FROM THE UPPER OH
VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST...FOCUSED WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS. 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES
OF AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ REMAINS ALONG AND E OF PRIMARY SYNOPTIC
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE DELMARVA SWD ACROSS THE ERN
CAROLINAS...WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY WITH WWD EXTENT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR AND RATHER STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1651.

...AZ...

TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM HAVE STRUGGLED TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MOVING/DEVELOPING SWWD OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 00Z TUS SOUNDING DID INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WAS
QUITE LIMITED WITH SBCAPES OF LESS THAN 100 J/KG. AIR MASS OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS REMAINS QUITE HOT AND SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

...PACIFIC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES...

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN ORE
AND SRN ID NWD INTO CNTRL/SERN WA AND WRN MT APPARENTLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE PRECEDING MORE SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE OVER CA/WRN NV. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
DCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

..MEAD.. 07/01/2008

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