SWOD48
SPC AC 010857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4 /WED JUN 4TH/...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT STRONG
UPPER JET STREAK DIGGING SEWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER CO
VALLEY WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS OCCURS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD
THROUGH WRN TX. A STATIONARY OR WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
ENEWD FROM THIS DEEPENING LOW INTO THE MID OR LOWER MO VALLEY.
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE /NAMELY ALONG WARM FRONT/.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG CAP MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE
FROM N/NW OF SURFACE LOW IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...EWD ALONG
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
SPREAD E OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP... ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER.
...D5 /THU JUN 5TH/...
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO THE CNTRL U.S. WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
MOVING NEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. RAPID AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR FROM ALONG SURFACE LOW AND WARM
FRONT SWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
...D6 /FRI JUN 6TH/...
LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION AS NEGATIVELY-TILTED
MIDLEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO OH VALLEY.
...D7 /SAT JUN 7TH/ THROUGH D8 /SUN JUN 8TH/...
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA SETS BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY D7...NAMELY OVER THE WRN STATES WITH REGARD TO LONG WAVE
EVOLUTION. GIVEN THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED.
..MEAD.. 06/01/2008
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