SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010958
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-011200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CO...SWRN KS...NWRN OK.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412...
VALID 010958Z - 011200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412
CONTINUES.
AREAS OF SWRN KS AND PERHAPS NWRN OK BETWEEN WWS 412 AND 409 WILL BE
MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL WW.
SVR POTENTIAL IS SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS WW AREA ALONG WITH MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION...EVIDENT AT 945Z OVER KEARNY/FINNEY COUNTIES KS
AND ASTRIDE KS/CO STATE LINE ALONG AR RIVER. WHILE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER W ACROSS SERN CO...PRIND
MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION LIKEWISE
WILL SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS SWRN KS..IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO RELATIVELY
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL REMAIN
MAXIMIZED FOR SWRN KS ACTIVITY -- UP TO 50-60 KT RANGE. THIS IS
DERIVED FROM COMBINING STORM MOTION ESTIMATES WITH 25-30 KT LLJ
EVIDENT IN DDC VWP THAT CORRESPONDS TO APPROXIMATELY 1 KM AGL BASE
LEVEL OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCEL DERIVED FROM RUC SOUNDINGS.
ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ROUGHLY 50
KT -- INDICATE SVR HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS AND PERHAPS INTO MID-MORNING...IN
FORM OF LARGE HAIL. SVR GUST RISK ALSO MAY INCREASE AS TSTMS TAKE
ON BOW CONFIGURATIONS AND APCH HIGHER THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
AND LOWER ELEVATION OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS -- CHARACTERIZED BY
SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F -- JUST S OF KS/OK BORDER.
..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
37290182 37910239 38440231 38370086 37999860 36729849
36819994
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