SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030808
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-030945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MO...SRN IA...WRN-CENTRAL IL...SWRN
INDIANA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427...
VALID 030808Z - 030945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427
CONTINUES.
ELONGATED MCS OVER WW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND SPREAD/EXTEND SEWD
ACROSS MORE OF IL...PERHAPS REACHING PORTIONS SWRN INDIANA BEFORE
12Z. ANOTHER WW IS LIKELY...PROBABLY REPLACING ERN PORTIONS OF
EXISTING WW...BUT NOT NECESSARILY ALL OF IT.
FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE TO
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH BROAD/40-45 KT WSWLY LLJ
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD THROUGH REMAINDER
PRE-DAWN HOURS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY RICH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO OFFSET RATHER WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MOIST/NEARLY-SATURATED LAYER IS UP TO 300 MB
DEEP...WITH PW 1.5-2 INCHES BASED ON RUC SOUNDINGS AND AVAILABLE GPS
DATA. NEAR-SATURATION OF LOW LEVELS...DESPITE 50-150 J/KG
MLCINH...WILL MAINTAIN SFC-BASED CHARACTER OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW
PARCELS IN SOME AREAS DESPITE WEAK DIABATIC COOLING. THEREFORE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO OR DAMAGING TSTM GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IN
ADDITION TO HAIL THREAT INHERENT TO SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
45-55 KT ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND VERY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
..EDWARDS.. 06/03/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
38348750 39299137 40669286 41049134 40348855 39328675
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