MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1426

ACUS11 KWNS 162255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162255
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-170030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN NC...VA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551...554...

VALID 162255Z - 170030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
551...554...CONTINUES.

NEW STORMS COULD SPREAD BACK ACROSS WW 554...AND AREAS TO THE
SOUTH/WEST...THIS EVENING. BUT...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF THE WW AREA...AND A NEW WW MAY NOT BE
NEEDED AT 02Z EXPIRATION.

SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ON THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ONTARIO CLOSED
LOW...STORMS NOW DEVELOPING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY SPREAD BACK INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA HAS BEEN
STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW SPREADING
INTO/THROUGH THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA/NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...A MUCH MORE STRONGLY HEATED...BUT
DRIER ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST. WHILE CAPE MAY NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ALONG THE PRE-OUTFLOW LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS...LARGE SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO THE RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION
SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION...BENEATH 35-40 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY BE TO
THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SHORT LIVED SUPERCELL OR
TWO.

..KERR.. 06/16/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

38957851 39397734 39377587 38897513 37777525 36777614
36327664 35837784 35667928 35608020 35598088 35738136
36128200 37178011

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