SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162341
OKZ000-TXZ000-170115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...OK AND NW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553...
VALID 162341Z - 170115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553
CONTINUES.
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT AND THE NEED FOR A WW ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS.
STRONGEST ONGOING STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BECOME CONFINED TO AREAS
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
...WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING SOUTH OF WW INTO
THE CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS AREA OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. BOUNDARY IS
ADVANCING TOWARD THE MORE STRONGLY HEATED...DRIER AND DEEP MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE
TEMPERATURES PEAKED JUST ABOVE 100F. AND...ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS
WEST OF CHILDRESS INTO AREAS NORTH OF MIDLAND.
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE...NEAR THE NOSE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL
JET...ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. THIS IS WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
INCREASING/CONSOLIDATING STORMS BETWEEN NOW AND 02-03Z.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION BENEATH THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...STORMS MAY NOT
PERSIST LONG AFTER SUNSET.
THERE IS SUGGESTION AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE THAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO/THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MAY BE ALONG THE
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL POTENTIAL IN STRONGER
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A
MORE PROMINENT RISK IN SLOW MOVING BAND/TRAINING CELLS WITHIN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR MASS /IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES/.
..KERR.. 06/16/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...
32930252 33680193 34700175 35670153 36100183 36700188
36819965 36719810 36189685 35259591 34359605 33859656
33809770 34039914 33939972 32180183
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