SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182329
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-190130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SD...NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569...
VALID 182329Z - 190130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569
CONTINUES.
ABUNDANT BUT RELATIVELY WEAK BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS WATCH 569 THIS
EVENING. THESE POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE FEATURES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
EXIST AMIDST A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND POCKETS OF MODEST WLY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...CELL DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS ERN MEADE COUNTY
APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED ALONG TROUGH/REMNANT FRONT INTERSECTION IN
THIS AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING TOWARD AN AXIS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY AND SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HIGH WINDS/LARGE HAIL.
NEW DEVELOPMENT WAS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS.
RECENT INTENSE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL NEB/NRN CUSTER COUNTY
APPEARS TO ALSO BE TIED TO WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND/OR
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THIS AREA. DESPITE LOCAL STABILIZATION
BENEATH EXPANSIVE ANVIL FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...THIS
PARTICULAR CELL MAY BE CAPABLE OF MAINTAINING INTENSITY GIVEN
LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUPPORTIVE BACKGROUND
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE.
ELSEWHERE...DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ATTM...OTHER WEAK
MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA MAY PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
..CARBIN.. 06/18/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...
45180402 45200293 45040293 44980193 45470199 45440032
45250027 45239960 44899955 44879966 42939949 42970019
41739975 41759921 41019920 41040023 40710027 40660208
41000207 40990406
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