SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190002
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-190130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...KS OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 571...
VALID 190002Z - 190130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 571 CONTINUES.
BROKEN SWATH OF INTENSE STORMS EXTENDS GENERALLY SW-NE ACROSS KS
TONIGHT WITHIN/AHEAD OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
REGION. WEAK LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW TOPPED BY MARGINAL 25-30KT NW FLOW
IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON THE LARGER SCALE...ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA
APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY A WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN MEAN NW-FLOW AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MCS
EVOLUTION OVER THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT.
GIVEN ABUNDANT DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND ONGOING STORM
MERGERS...STAGE SEEMS SET FOR A NOCTURNAL MCS EVENT TO SPREAD SSEWD
ACROSS SCNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
INHIBITION DUE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. IT
IS EXPECTED THAT A COMBINATION OF STORM SCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSCALE COLD POOL GROWTH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THIS INHIBITION AND ALLOW INTENSE CONVECTION
TO PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.
..CARBIN.. 06/19/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...
36530003 38090015 38760049 39320090 39610096 39910085
40270051 40389992 40339954 40179896 40019864 39969848
39049835 37709719 36259720 35899823 35949976
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