SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292313
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-300045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN WV...CT...EXTREME SERN
OH...VT...PA...NH...NY...NJ...MA...EXTREME WRN MAINE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...642...
VALID 292313Z - 300045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
638...642...CONTINUES.
SEVERAL BKN LINE OF STG-SVR TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY EWD ACROSS WW AREAS...PAST 00Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 638
OVER PORTIONS PA. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTIVE LINE INITIALLY OVER
CENTRAL/NRN NY SHOULD PERSIST WITH SVR GUST POTENTIAL E OF WW 642
INTO PORTIONS VT/NH/MA AND PERHAPS EVEN EXTREME WRN MAINE THROUGH
LATE EVENING. THEREFORE...WE ARE CONSIDERING REPLACEMENT WW TO
CONSOLIDATE WW COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA AND EXPAND IT EWD SOMEWHAT.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF RELATIVELY WARM AIR LINGERING IN AIR
MASS E OF NY BAND...SWWD OVER MUCH OF PA...THAT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
UNPERTURBED BY PRIOR CONVECTION. SFC TEMPS UPPER 70S/LOW 80S F WILL
COOL GRADUALLY...HOWEVER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS.
MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THIS REGION IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
FRAGMENTED...WITH POCKETS OF DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 50S PORTIONS
WRN PA...LOW 60S F OVER NERN PA AND NY ADIRONDACKS...TO 70S OVER
PORTIONS SERN PA...NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MOIST AXIS IS
ANALYZED THROUGH HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE RELATIVELY WEAK/BACKED SFC
WINDS ALSO MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES SHOULD REMAIN
COMMON ACROSS REGION AS MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ONT...LE
AND OH PIVOTS EWD/NEWD. SVR THREAT THUS SHOULD PERSIST AFTER
DARK...INDICATING NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.
..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...
39538127 42107863 42897838 44977502 44997126 44047050
42687083 40837364 39817496 39717919 39358006
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