SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302352
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-010145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN VA...MD...DC...DE...SERN PA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302352Z - 010145Z
BKN BAND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AT LEAST MRGLLY
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS REGION THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND WAS EVIDENT AT 2320Z FROM NEAR MRB-OMH-FVX
LINE SWD INTO HALIFAX COUNTY VA. INITIALLY SEPARATE CLUSTER WAS
EVIDENT BETWEEN UNV-MDT IN PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN PA. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING IN NARROW ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
CRW REGION. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKETS OF HIGHLY VARIABLE MOISTURE
AHEAD OF EXISTING CONVECTION...WITH DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN 60S
F...OFFSETTING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 300-700 J/KG. MOMENTUM
ASSOCIATED WITH STG MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY BE TRANSPORTED INTO
LOW LEVELS IN STRONGER TSTMS. POTENTIALLY STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES
IN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ENHANCE GUST POTENTIAL WITH
STRONGER CELLS AND SMALL/BOWING SEGMENTS. LIMITING FACTORS WILL
INCLUDE LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR...WITH RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS AND VWP INDICATING FLOW DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KT AT
850 MB TO 5-10 KT IN BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH EWD EXTENT FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE RESTRICTED BY
STABILIZING OF NEAR-SFC AIR MASS RELATED TO BOTH PRIOR OUTFLOWS AND
DIABATIC COOLING.
..EDWARDS.. 06/30/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
36817901 37487846 38477813 39297805 40507652 39887560
38197600 36917702 36617796
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