DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011211
SWODY1
SPC AC 011208

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2008

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND...MN...AND
NORTHERN WI...

...ND/MN/WI...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS FEATURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF FRONT
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THIS WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CAPPING SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONT MOVES INTO ND/MN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER INTO THE EVENING AS IT SPREADS INTO CENTRAL MN AND FAR
NORTHERN WI.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
A RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED THIS MORNING
OVER ORE/ID. THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE OVER TOP OF UPPER RIDGE AND
AFFECT PARTS OF ID/MT/WY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A POCKET OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE
DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL YIELD
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
MT DURING THE EVENING. INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR IN UPSLOPE REGIME
ALONG THE BIGHORN MTNS. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL
PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...FL...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
OVER THE FL PENINSULA. A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE. 500MB
TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -10C SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL.

..HART/GRAMS.. 07/01/2008

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