SWODY1
SPC AC 040553
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT FRI JUL 04 2008
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...
...NRN ROCKIES...
A SECONDARY UPR IMPULSE ROTATING WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH OFF
THE PAC NW CST WILL MOVE INLAND AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES REGION
FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LOW/MID-LVL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER WRN/CNTRL MT AND NRN ID...BOTH BY
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND RECYCLED MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
STRONG HEATING AND STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG BY MID-AFTN. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INITIALLY ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ID/WRN MT AND THEN ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCD WITH THE UPR IMPULSE. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WILL BE PSBL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO JUST
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE HIGHER ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN WRN MT.
EVENTUALLY...AN ORGANIZED BAND OR TWO OF TSTMS WILL EVOLVE AND MOVE
RAPIDLY ENE TOWARD THE ALTA/SASK BORDER AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
HIGH WINDS/HAIL.
...AZ...
AFTER A MODESTLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OVER THE LWR DESERTS OF SC/SE
AZ ON THURSDAY...IT REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. MOISTURE SURGE APPEARS IN PROGRESS ONTO THE
DESERTS OWING TO THE DENSITY CURRENT EMANATING FROM THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE THAT PASSED THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOUTH EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WOULD TEND TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
ENE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN THAT OBSERVED ON
THURSDAY. BUT...POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY
LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLD DMGG WIND/HAIL POTENTIALS.
...MID-ATLC/SERN STATES WWD INTO ERN OK...
UPR TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GRTLKS...OH VLY AND NERN STATES WILL
EDGE SLOWLY EWD ON FRIDAY. WHILE STRONGER PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER SERN CANADA...A WEAKER BELT OF FLOW WILL EXIST
ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE TROUGH. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL JET STREAKS
AND MCV/S WILL TRAVERSE A CORRIDOR FROM THE CORN BELT SEWD THROUGH
THE OH/TN VLYS THEN ENEWD INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION. IN THE LWR
LVLS...A WAVY FRONT...AUGMENTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WILL EXIST
FROM PARTS OF NJ/MD/NRN VA SWWD ACROSS THE OH VLY...MID-SOUTH AND
SRN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS AND ISOLD SVR
POTENTIAL FRIDAY.
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR FRIDAY WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE THE STRONGEST
HEATING WILL OCCUR INVOF THE FRONT. CORRIDOR OF FAIRLY HIGH PWAT
VALUES WILL EXIST THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR...THOUGH
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER POOR...ESPECIALLY E OF THE MS RVR
VLY NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION/CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...MID-LVL
WLY FLOW OF 35-40 KTS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AUGMENTED BY
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAKS COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF LOCALLY
HIGHER SVR THREATS /MAINLY DMGG WIND GUSTS/ FROM THE OH/TN VLYS INTO
PARTS OF CNTRL VA AND THE CAROLINAS. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE STRONGEST HEATING WILL OCCUR...ONLY 5
PERCENT PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A BROAD AREA. LATER
OTLKS MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SLGT RISK WORDING OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA.
..RACY/JEWELL.. 07/04/2008
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