DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060101
SWODY1
SPC AC 060058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2008

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS...

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
00Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SC
MANITOBA SWD INTO E ND...CNTRL SD THEN INTO W NEB. A COLD FRONT WAS
FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND...ARCING FROM CNTRL MANITOBA TO NW SD.

AIRMASS BRIEFLY BECAME UNCAPPED INVOF THE SFC TROUGH OVER E ND WITH
AN ISOLD SFC-BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTN. THIS CELL
QUICKLY DIED AS IT MOVED OFF THE BOUNDARY AND INTO A MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. RECENTLY...TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING/BACKBUILDING
SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INVOF KDVL WHERE MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT
TIED TO A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WAS SKIRTING THE REGION. 00Z BIS
SOUNDING WAS LARGELY UNCAPPED WITH 55 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND 7.7
DEG C PER KM MID-TROP LAPSE RATES. THUS...BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES MAY INITIALLY BE OBSERVED WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE
EWD TOWARD THE RED RVR VLY OF THE NORTH. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR S
THE STORMS WILL BUILD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG INHIBITION NOTED
ON THE 00Z ABR SOUNDING AND GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEB MCS.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE SLGT RISK INTO CNTRL/ERN SD.

FARTHER S...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS OCCURRED ALONG THE SFC
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NCNTRL NEB WHERE THE AIR MASS BECAME HOT AND
UNCAPPED LATE THIS AFTN. VERTICAL SHEAR WAS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER AT
MORE SLY LATITUDES AND INDIVIDUAL TSTMS HAVE BEEN PULSING TO MEET OR
EXCEED SVR LIMITS. NOW THAT A COLD POOL HAS BECOME
WELL-ESTABLISHED...TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED
THROUGH MID-EVENING OVER CNTRL NEB THAT MAY PROVIDE A SVR WIND
THREAT.

ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...ISOLD STG-SVR TSTMS THAT GENERATED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WITHIN A POCKET OF MID-TROP MOISTURE ADVECTING
EWD WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED OVER SE MT. STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND ROUGHLY 45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EVENING LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER ERN WY AND MOVE SEWD INTO FAR NW NEB
OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD DMGG WINDS/HAIL.

..RACY.. 07/06/2008

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