SWODY1
SPC AC 070056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2008
VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN KS AND
PARTS OF SRN/CENTRAL NEB...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS ERN
ID/WRN MT EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY WITHIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SRN-SERN MT/WY THIS EVENING
WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING.
FARTHER N...A FEW TSTMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE MAY MOVE ESEWD INTO
NWRN ND WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
STRONGLY SHEARED THIS EVENING.
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE ID/WRN MT TROUGH AND WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS SUGGEST TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST EWD TONIGHT INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS ALONG A FRONT ADVANCING EWD INTO THIS AREA BY 12Z.
WEAKER INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER TONIGHT.
...ERN CO/NEB/NRN KS...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING ENEWD THROUGH
NERN CO/SWRN NEB...IS EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL NEB BY 12Z MONDAY.
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED EWD ACROSS NEB/KS WILL SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM W TX TO SRN NEB. ASCENT SPREADING ENEWD
ATTENDANT TO AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL FEATURE AND INCREASING ALONG
NOSE OF LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER ERN CO/
NWRN KS/SWRN NEB. NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ENEWD ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NWRN KS TO SERN NEB.
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35-40 KT MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING.
...MID MO VALLEY TO WRN GREAT LAKES...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
UPPER MI SWWD THROUGH SRN MN TO SRN SD. WEAK ASCENT SPREADING EWD
AHEAD OF AN IMPULSE OVER ERN NEB AND A SECOND MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN
MN SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER NERN IA...AND ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER
ERN MN TO UPPER MI SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION... INCREASING INHIBITION WILL LIMIT AN ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH EWD EXTENT.
MEANWHILE...ASCENT ATTENDANT TO ERN NEB IMPULSE AND/OR APPARENT MCV
FORMING WITHIN LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WRN/NRN IA SHOULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT/CLUSTERS EWD THIS FORECAST
PERIOD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL TO LAKE MICHIGAN. WAA ALONG SWLY LLJ
VEERING TO WLY TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ONGOING
CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PROGRESS EWD. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS...BUT WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THIS THREAT.
..PETERS.. 07/07/2008
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