SWODY1
SPC AC 080058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2008
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN-SRN WI AND
NRN IL SWWD TO PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ND/NERN SD AND NW
MN...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN...WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT REACHING ERN MN/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY
12Z TUESDAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD THROUGH NRN KS
TO CENTRAL IA AND CENTRAL WI. THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM
WI INTO IA/SERN NEB WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SSEWD...LIKELY ENHANCED BY
ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS/MCS DEVELOPMENT.
...ERN/SRN WI AND NRN IL SWWD TO SERN NEB/NRN KS...
AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM SRN IA/NRN MO INTO SERN WI/NRN IL. HEIGHT FALLS WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING SWLY
LLJ EXTENDING FROM OK/KS TO SWRN GREAT LAKES AREA WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SRN WI TO SRN IA TO NRN KS/FAR
SRN NEB. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOCATED ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF
THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR A LINEAR MCS TO PRODUCE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES ESEWD THROUGH SRN WI/ERN IA
TO NRN IL. ALTHOUGH TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST EWD TOWARD LOWER
MI/NWRN IND LATER TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH EWD EXTENT WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE.
FARTHER SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND MODEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
...ERN ND/NERN SD/NW MN...
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM NW MN
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MN TO CENTRAL WI. REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATED TSTM ACTIVITY NOW LOCATED OVER SERN ND AND
ADJACENT NW MN WAS LOCATED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WHILE SECOND
CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER NERN ND/NWRN MN WAS LOCATED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER
FAR ERN ND INTO NW/WEST CENTRAL MN COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL PERSIST MAINLY
OVER FAR NERN ND INTO NW MN WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. ELSEWHERE...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
...GA TO VA...
A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
02-03Z WHERE RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY AND COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING STABILIZING THE AIR MASS.
..PETERS.. 07/08/2008
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