SWODY1
SPC AC 140036
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008
VALID 140100Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM EAST TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. RUC
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL FUEL THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SEVERAL REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KT. AS A RESULT...THE
CONVECTION IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON INSTABILITY. BEFORE THE
INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
...SW DESERT...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM CNTRL AZ
EXTENDING EWD INTO WRN NM WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING.
RUC OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXISTS FROM NEAR TUCSON EXTENDING NWD TO SOUTH OF FLAGSTAFF.
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACCORDING TO REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWPS...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
...ERN SEABOARD...
SEVERAL LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY HAS WEAKENED AHEAD OF MOST OF
THE CONVECTION A FEW POCKETS WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500
J/KG ARE STILL PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
..BROYLES.. 07/14/2008
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