SWODY1
SPC AC 140529
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EWD
TODAY AS ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE NWRN AND NCNTRL
STATES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. BY EVENING...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT IN NRN MN AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DUE
TO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY MONDAY
EVENING ACROSS NRN MN SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES LARGELY
DUE TO A 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. ALTHOUGH LESS
LIKELY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. HOWEVER...SFC
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S F AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE. FOR THIS REASON...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT RISK ATTM.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER FAR NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. A SFC
TROUGH AND AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
FROM NEAR THE LOW EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WCNTRL NEB. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM...ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY OVERCOME
THE CAPPING INVERSION AND INITIATE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE HIGH-BASED...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR STEEP ENOUGH FOR HAIL. STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CNTRL NEB WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY
STEEP AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY HAVE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F.
...ERN SEABOARD AND FLORIDA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM SRN GA EXTENDING NEWD
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SE VA TODAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTING A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
..BROYLES/SMITH.. 07/14/2008
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