SWODY1
SPC AC 160044
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...CNTRL PLAINS/NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL STATES. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO
SHORTWAVE FEATURES EXIST IN THE CNTRL PLAINS...ONE IN FAR WRN NEB
AND THE OTHER ENTERING FAR WRN IA. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN
NEB AND WRN IA HAVE SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. AN MCS IS ORGANIZING ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN
IA AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE SSEWD INTO SERN NEB AND
SW IA THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN SD...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ONGOING ASSOCIATED WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY LOCATED NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS ERN
SD INTO SRN MN THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST ACROSS WI...LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE THERE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
CONCERNING THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 50 TO
65 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER ND AND NRN MN. SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE...MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY DROPS OFF TO ABOUT 30 KT AT 500
MB OVER NEB AND IA. HOWEVER...REGIONAL PROFILERS IN NEB SUGGEST
SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS BELOW 700 MB AND THIS IS
HELPING TO CREATE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS AT OMAHA AND NORTH PLATTE SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAXIMIZED
WITH ANY LINEAR MCS THAT CAN PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING.
...SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A SFC TROUGH IN ERN CO
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG
AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500
J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM AMARILLO AND
WSR-88D VWPS FROM GOODLAND SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND
DAMAGE THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 07/16/2008
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