SWODY1
SPC AC 200100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...
...UPPER MIDWEST...
DUAL STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR MCS/S WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD /AND POTENTIALLY MERGE/ THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...ONE CURRENTLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL WI
WEST-EAST QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...THE OTHER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL 45 KT
MOVING MCS /DRIVEN BY AN APPRECIABLE COLD POOL/ IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS NORTHERN IA. AIDED BY A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND
ORGANIZATION ON THE MESOSCALE...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND A
GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/INSTABILITY FEED
WILL SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL RISK THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN IA AND SOUTHERN WI INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IL. A
FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE DISCRETE
STORMS.
...DAKOTAS...
RELATIVELY ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE MAINLY A SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AIDED BY MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY /AROUND
1000 J PER KG MLCAPE PER 00Z ABERDEEN AND BISMARCK RAOBS/. THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR
BISMARCK...WITH SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHEAST MT TO SOUTHEAST SD. WHILE A RELATIVELY ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING OWING TO
INCREASING CINH AND LIMITED BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT.
...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...AN IN VICINITY OF
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MAINE. WHILE A ROGUE TSTM
OR TWO COULD YET PRODUCE SEVERE WIND/HAIL THIS EVENING...LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF EASTERN
QUEBEC/MAINE MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD RESULT IN A CONSIDERABLY
DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
PROJECTED SLOW NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM CHRISTOBAL PER
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE SHOULD KEEP MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR LOW LEVEL
STORM ROTATION/ISOLATED TORNADOES OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..GUYER.. 07/20/2008
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