SWODY1
SPC AC 220100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN
MO INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEYS...
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A ROUGHLY WEST-EAST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN NEB INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA. AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
3000-4500 J/KG MLCAPE. WITH A LIKLIHOOD OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
SEVERE/FAST-MOVING MCS THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...00Z
OBSERVED RAOB DATA FROM LINCOLN IL/WILMINGTON OH HAS PROMPTED AN
EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE MODERATE/SLIGHT RISK AREAS.
...NV/ORE...
UPPER LOW NOW ALONG THE NORTHERN CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASINGLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND MODERATELY STRONG DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK THROUGH THE EVENING. REFERENCE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1846 FOR LATEST DETAILS ACROSS NV.
...EASTERN STATES...
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
VICINITY...BUT A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED OVERALL.
..GUYER.. 07/22/2008
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