SWODY1
SPC AC 230100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN KS/OZARKS TO
SOUTHEAST STATES/APPALACHIANS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TX...
...EASTERN KS SEWD TO SOUTHEAST STATES/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL
AS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES VICINITY...
NUMEROUS TSTMS/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS TODAY HAVE LARGELY DISRUPTED
AND/OR SOUTHWARD-SHIFTED THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
MISSOURI VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
STATES. ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN KS/OZARKS VICINITY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS BEING DIURNALLY ENHANCED
ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOWS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. WHILE PERIODIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS/SOME HAIL WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS/DECOUPLES. REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1866 FOR ADDITIONAL
SHORT TERM DETAILS. FARTHER NORTH...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER
TROUGH AND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OTHER STRONG/ISOLATED
SEVERE TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THIS EVENING AS WELL.
...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE VICINITY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION OF ID/WY/CENTRAL MT...OWING TO AMPLE LARGE FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND A RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. OTHER TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH/INSTABILITY AXIS
FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN NEB...WITH AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO SUSTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS THIS
EVENING.
...SOUTH TX...
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HURRICANE DOLLY WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE FAR SOUTH TX COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WITHIN FAVORABLE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF DOLLY.
..GUYER.. 07/23/2008
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