DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290103
SWODY1
SPC AC 290101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN ND...NERN
SD...AND W CENTRAL AND SWRN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...AND INTO THE MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS......

...NRN PLAINS/MID MO/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
STORMS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS ONGOING ATTM
FROM THE DAKOTAS SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

STORMS HAVE JUST BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS ND...WITH
WIDESPREAD/ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
QUITE FAVORABLE NOT ONLY FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE BUT ALSO
INTENSITY -- WITH EVENING ABERDEEN SD RAOB REVEALING OVER 4000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT.

DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...THOUGH MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
MAIN HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH THE THREAT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TOWARD DAMAGING WINDS AS
MCS DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SERN ND AND THE
NERN QUARTER OF SD. PRESUMING THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...STORMS WOULD THEN LIKELY ROLL ESEWD INTO PATS OF MN AND
POSSIBLY IA -- ACCOMPANIED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE.

...NRN PORTIONS OF NY/NEW ENGLAND...
STORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS MOST AREAS...THOUGH A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN NY...AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN
ME. WHILE A DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUED DECREASE IN THREAT...FAIRLY STRONG CIRCULATION CENTER
CROSSING THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER INTO NEW ENGLAND COULD SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/LOCALLY-SEVERE CELLS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

...THE SOUTHEAST...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE CURRENT DIURNAL DECREASING TREND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS STABILIZES. A
STRONGER PULSE STORM OR TWO COULD STILL POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT FOR A SHORT WHILE LONGER...BEFORE THE THREAT DIMINISHES BY
MID-EVENING.

..GOSS.. 07/29/2008

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