SWODY1
SPC AC 300058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2008
VALID 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST STATES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MO/IL/INDIANA AND VICINITY...
WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION HAS HINDERED STORM
INTENSITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVER THE PAST HOUR.
MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS WI...WHERE ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM. THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS STORMS CROSS WI...BUT ONLY A
MARGINAL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY CROSS
INTO LOWER MI.
FURTHER S...A VERY WELL-ORGANIZED/LARGE-SCALE BOW HAS
DEVELOPED...AND IS MOVING EWD ACROSS IL AT 30 TO 35 KT. WHILE
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS WEAKER AS COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER N...A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS IL DUE
TO THE WELL-ORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS MCS.
FURTHER E -- INTO INDIANA/OH/SRN LOWER MI...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
REVEAL A PROGRESSIVE DECREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT. THIS
IS CONFIRMED BY EVENING RAOBS -- WITH WILMINGTON OH 00Z SOUNDING
REVEALING LESS THAN 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. GIVEN THE
WELL-ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK
THIS FORECAST AS FAR E AS ERN INDIANA. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS OH...THE LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING THREAT WITH EWD EXTENT OVERNIGHT.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
FLOW HAS FINALLY TURNED DECIDEDLY SELY AT LOW-LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS...BUT DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR ACROSS MT.
MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED -- AND SHOULD REMAIN -- ACROSS WRN
SD/THE NEB PANHANDLE AND INTO NERN WY. THIS HAS SUPPORTED A FEW
STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE -- AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL
STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES THIS EVENING. FURTHER WNW ACROSS MT...THE SEVERE THREAT
-- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS -- SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED/BELOW SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS.
...KS/OK/PARTS OF TX...
STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF KS/WRN MO/OK INVOF THE
REMNANTS OF DOLLY...WITH STORMS THEN EXTENDING FARTHER SWWD ACROSS
WRN N TX AND INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION. WHILE FLOW ALOFT IS MODEST
AT BEST OVER THIS REGION...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- PARTICULARLY
THIS EVENING AS A 30 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS -- MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR WET MICROBURST.
..GOSS.. 07/30/2008
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