SWODY1
SPC AC 011622
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2008
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND...MN AND
NORTHERN WI...
...ND/MN/WI...
PREVIOUS RISK FORECASTED FOR THIS AREA LOOKS ON TRACK AS THE
VIGOROUS TROUGH NOW IN NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN DROPS SEWD INTO
UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AT 15Z THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
VICINITY LAKE WINNIPEG SWWD INTO NRN MT. A N/S PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO NEAR MN
BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RAISE MLCAPES
TO ABOVE 1500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE CINH GENERALLY DISSIPATES
IN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BOTH WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KT AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ONCE THE CAP IS SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKENED BOTH ALONG THE FRONT AND THE N/S SURFACE TROUGH.
GIVEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...STORM MODE TO
BE PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN CONCERN. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WHERE LARGER LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...NRN ROCKIES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NICELY THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE THIS MORNING
ERN OR/SWRN ID THAT WILL BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS WRN RIDGE TODAY.
WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE RISK AREA
ATTM...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL EFFECTIVELY DISSIPATE MUCH OF LOW
LEVEL INHIBITION BY MID AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF SBCAPES TO 1000 J/KG
DEVELOPING. WHILE THE OVERALL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER
WAVE SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ID/WRN MT BY MID AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
SPREAD EWD INTO CENTRAL MT BY EVENING EVOLVING INTO MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTER AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UNTIL LATE
EVENING.
...FL...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
OVER THE FL PENINSULA. A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE. 500MB
TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -10C SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL.
...PART OF NORTHEAST STATES...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NERN U.S. TODAY.
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIR MASS WITH HEATING AHEAD OF TROUGH TO DEVELOP
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SEE MCD 1652 FOR
ADDITIONAL INFO.
...AZ...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND ERN AZ.
WHILE FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER HIGH IN NW AZ...STORMS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAN ON
MON. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE SMALL...HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE GENERATED BY ANY STRONG UPDRAFT THAT DEVELOPS MOSTLY
FROM THE RIM/WHITE MTNS SWD.
..HALES/LEVIT.. 07/01/2008
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