SWODY1
SPC AC 050100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT FRI JUL 04 2008
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN
MT...
...CNTRL/ERN MT...
MID-LVL WAVE WAS RAPIDLY SHEARING NEWD ACROSS MT THIS EVENING.
NUMEROUS TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW MT TERRAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE DISTURBANCE COINCIDED WITH
PEAK HEATING. 00Z TFX EXHIBITED MARGINAL SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES
AND A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH LARGE HAIL.
AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE EWD THIS EVENING AND A
CONGLOMERATE COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE
INTO LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND MOVE ENE THROUGH CNTRL AND
NE MT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DMGG WINDS/HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW
STORMS...PARTICULARLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM KHLN NEWD TO KGTF AND KHVR.
...SC/SE AZ...
00Z TUS SOUNDING SAMPLED 15-20 KT ELY FLOW IN THE H7-H5 LAYER WITH
THE FLOW DIMINISHING FARTHER N BENEATH THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PER THE FGZ RAOB. TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIM HAVE
WELL-DEVELOPED OUTFLOWS AND GIVEN MODEST LWR VLY CAPE /00Z PHX
AROUND 600 J PER KG MLCAPE AND 1.46 IN PWATS/...STORMS WILL
PROPAGATE ONTO THE LWR DESERT FLOOR AROUND PHX BETWEEN 2-4Z...THEN
WEST INTO WRN MARICOPA COUNTY THROUGH 6Z.
FARTHER S...SERN AZ HAS BEEN COMPARATIVELY LESS ACTIVE OVER THURSDAY
OWING TO THURSDAY NIGHT TSTMS SLIGHTLY STABILIZING THE ENVIRONMENT
AND AXIS OF STRONGER UPR DIVERGENCE HAVING SHIFTED FARTHER WNW.
ISOLD STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPLAYING NWD
FROM THE STORMS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AFFECTING AREAS
PRIMARILY IN NWRN COCHISE AND PIMA COUNTIES.
AS USUAL WITH THESE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT AND DRY SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENTS...ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS
WILL RESULT.
..RACY.. 07/05/2008
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