SWODY3
SPC AC 310729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT/SAT NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY....
...SYNOPSIS...
SREF/MREF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A CONSIDERABLE RANGE OF
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVES WITHIN
A STRONGER BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER
AREA. THIS INCLUDES A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING OR PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CREST OF A RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM A CENTRAL PLAINS SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER ...THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS...ON SATURDAY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL PROBABLY PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE FOCUS AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS STILL UNCLEAR AT THE
PRESENT TIME.
...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
DESPITE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING MID/UPPER FORCING...AND STRENGTH OF
INHIBITION ON THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...MODELS INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY
DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE WILL FROM TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS PROGGED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-50 KT
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A BROAD FOCUS FOR
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION...FROM THE CENTRAL/ EASTERN
DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE MIXED LAYER/MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 2000-4000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
WESTERLIES...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE INITIATION OF SUPERCELLS AND A SUBSEQUENT CONSOLIDATION/ UPSCALE
EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..KERR.. 07/31/2008
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