MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1653

ACUS11 KWNS 011709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011709
FLZ000-011915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011709Z - 011915Z

TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE SEVERE RISK SUGGESTS A WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DECELERATE/STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT...AMPLE HEATING/SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS LEADING TO A
DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE SEABREEZE AND A WARM/MOIST AND
WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -9C AT
500 MB PER 12Z OBSERVED TAMPA BAY AND MIAMI RAOBS/ ARE SUGGESTIVE OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF 80S F
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F WILL SUPPORT
MLCAPE OF 1500-2250 J/KG. AMIDST A MODESTLY SHEARED REGIME /15-20 KT
0-6 KM OR LESS/...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN PULSE-TYPE DAMAGING DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL...WITH SOME HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..GUYER.. 07/01/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

28658243 28888085 26708009 25498030 25818073 26228159
27118232

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