MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1706

ACUS11 KWNS 070152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070151
NDZ000-070245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0851 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 070151Z - 070245Z

NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CROSSING CNTRL MT...ACCOMPANIED BY 30-35 KT FLOW AT H5.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE SPREADING EWD
INTO WRN ND THIS EVENING. INCREASED CONVECTION NOTED OVER ERN MT
AND NW ND IS LIKELY SIGNS OF THE APCHG ASCENT. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS
WAS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...EXCEPT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN A NARROW AXIS EXTENDING FROM ESTEVAN SASK SEWD TO
THE KMOT AREA /MLCAPES 1000 J/KG/.

ISOLD SVR STORM MOVING SEWD FROM THE ESTEVAN AREA WILL CLIP BURKE
AND PERHAPS WARD COUNTIES IN ND AS IT THRIVES WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AXIS. COORDINATION WITH THE PRAIRIE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN WINNIPEG REVEALED THAT GOLFBALL HAIL WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CELL. OTHERWISE...TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
INCREASED WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE REMAINDER OF WRN ND WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN SUB-SVR...THOUGH AN ISOLD STORM MAY BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

..RACY.. 07/07/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

49020221 47780174 46280156 46020241 46100350 47640386
48980321

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