SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080047
MIZ000-080215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LK MI AND WRN LWR MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 080047Z - 080215Z
THIS EVENING'S ATTENTION HAS BEEN WITH THE BOW ECHO REMNANTS MOVING
THROUGH ERN WI. RECENT REPORTS OVER CNTRL/ERN WI HAVE REVEALED
SUB-SVR WIND GUSTS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOBS CONFIRM THAT
BUOYANCY DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WI LAKESHORE EWD INTO LWR
MI...WITH THE PRIMARY RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY SITUATED OVER ERN IA
EWD INTO NRN IL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PRIMARY LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALL
AXIS ASSOCD WITH THE SYNOPTIC WAVE CROSSING MN WILL TRANSLATE NEWD
INTO UPR MI AND NRN LWR MI THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. SWLY LLJ
AXIS TIED TO THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ENE FROM THE UPR MS
VLY INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION WITH TIME THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION
OVERNIGHT. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY SUB-SVR AS THE REMNANT
BOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
STRONGEST LLJ SHIFTS QUICKLY NEWD. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER WW
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WI WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.
..RACY.. 07/08/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...
42548749 43268737 44678711 44648598 43928475 42858466
42388511 42268594 42338677
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