SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142032
MNZ000-142230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 142032Z - 142230Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.
VISIBLE/WV SATELLITE CHANNELS SUGGEST THAT PERSISTENT MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM SERN MANITOBA INTO N-CNTRL MN IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ESEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NE OF RRT INDICATES
THAT SOME CONVECTION IS DEEPENING AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT WITHIN THE
LARGER-SCALE CLOUD SHIELD. DIABATIC HEATING HAS BEEN TEMPERED TODAY
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
BUT THE PRESENCE OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY
COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPES.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH 15/00Z ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND 40-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
..MEAD.. 07/14/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
48659584 48749392 48279198 47869133 47069214 46989396
47289570 47779672 48349649
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment