MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1778

ACUS11 KWNS 142050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142049
NEZ000-SDZ000-142245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142049Z - 142245Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT INCREASING IN
COVERAGE WITHIN A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER NERN CO INTO THE
SRN NEB PNHDL. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS SRN WY APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS
CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN NEB
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT OR PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THERMAL LOW OVER NERN CO
NEWD THROUGH N-CNTRL NEB IS WARM AND RELATIVELY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S. THESE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AS OF 20Z WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPES APPROACHING
1000-1500 J/KG.

12Z LBF SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...A CONDITION
WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN REACHED OVER FAR SWRN NEB WHERE THE AIR MASS
IS SLIGHTLY DRIER. THUS...EXPECT CURRENT CUMULUS/EARLY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TO FURTHER INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EWD INTO THE
PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. CURRENT MCCOOK PROFILER
INDICATES SLY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO NWLY AT 30-35 KT ABOVE 5 KM
WHICH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

..MEAD.. 07/14/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...

41100211 41720230 42510172 42840074 42999987 42719937
41859916 40380078 40400158

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