SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200117
SDZ000-NDZ000-200215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0817 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ND...NRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 704...
VALID 200117Z - 200215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 704
CONTINUES.
AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BUT...THE WATCH COULD BE
LOCALLY EXTENDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION UNDERWAY...AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
BEGINNING TO RISE...THE ENVIRONMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING
LESS CONDUCIVE TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORM-SCALE
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS SPREADING SOUTH OF
BISMARCK MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEYOND THE 02Z WATCH EXPIRATION. BEFORE THE
PRIMARY STORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES...THE TENDENCY PROBABLY WILL BE
FOR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT WITHIN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME...INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF MOBRIDGE SD...WHERE
INHIBITION IS STILL WEAKEST FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WITH CAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG.
..KERR.. 07/20/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...
46420057 46550032 46419963 45859934 45619973 45680021
46150053
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment