SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220016
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-220145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IA...NRN MO INTO NW IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 719...
VALID 220016Z - 220145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 719
CONTINUES.
ALONG/NORTH OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EMANATING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF
EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ALONG THE
MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER AREA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. ON THE NOSE OF
THE RIDGE...THE INITIATION OF STORMS IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. AND...IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT RAPID NEW
DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS WESTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 01-02Z. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY
LARGE-SCALE LIFT SOUTH/WEST OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND...IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 35-50 KT WEST
NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. DESPITE
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
..KERR.. 07/22/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
40369452 40869383 40649142 40799056 40648965 40158943
39659019 39619087 39609211
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