MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1846

ACUS11 KWNS 220027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220027
NVZ000-220200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1846
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 220027Z - 220200Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER N-CENTRAL NV FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NON-ZERO TORNADO
THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL HAVE BEEN REPORTED THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH SUPERCELLS IN W-CENTRAL NV. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL STRUCTURE ALONG WITH OTHER STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-45
KTS 0-6KM SHEAR/ FOR STORM ORGANIZATION --INCLUDING SUPERCELLS--
EXISTS ACCORDING TO 00Z REV RAOB. SEASONABLY HIGH PWS IN
COMBINATION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /2000 J/KG MLCAPE/ PER MODIFIED 00Z REV
RAOB. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WANING PRESSURE FALLS /BELOW 1MB
PER HR/ COMPARED TO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN A ZONE FROM EKO TO REV.
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE GREATEST IN THE WRN HALF OF THIS
ZONE WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGEST. DESPITE HIGH SURFACE T/TD
DEPRESSIONS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS /AOA
2000M/...INSTABILITY AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND AND A NON-ZERO TORNADO
THREAT.

..SMITH.. 07/22/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...

39581666 38671819 38471872 38601914 39031947 39721965
40781850 41161740 41171592 40821466 40351476 40051520
39841584

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