SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220100
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-220230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO THRU CNTRL/S CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 220100Z - 220230Z
AN ADDITIONAL WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WWS 719/720 PRIOR
TO 03Z.
WHILE AREA OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION MAY SPREAD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS/
INDIANA THIS EVENING...FORCING ALONG A TRAILING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
ZONE APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...BENEATH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
THIS MAY BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF WWS 719/720 BY
02-03Z...INCLUDING THE ST. LOUIS/COLUMBIA...POSSIBLY KANSAS
CITY...AREAS BETWEEN 03-06Z. WHILE...INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS
EXTREME AS NOW PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI... THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF A CURRENTLY EVOLVING LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM.
..KERR.. 07/22/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...
39989496 39739312 39569061 39938870 38808794 38269047
38389279 38719445
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