SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250036
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-WYZ000-250130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY / WRN SD / N-CENTRAL NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 746...
VALID 250036Z - 250130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 746
CONTINUES.
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY TRANSITION FROM A LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DMGG WIND
THREAT TO MORE OF A DMGG WIND/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS.
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS IS DESCRIBED AS A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN OVER
THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM NRN MN EXTENDING
SWWD TO CENTRAL SD AND EXTENDING WWD INTO N-CENTRAL WY. A DIFFUSE
SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDS FROM NEAR OLU IN ERN NE TO PIR.
ELY-COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL AID IN
MAINTAINING MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS THROUGH 03Z.
00Z LBF AND MODIFIED RAP RAOBS SUGGEST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
/1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AIRMASS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE PARTS OF SD/NE
WHERE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS NOT OCCURRED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA
40KTS WILL AID IN CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION. MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR FUTURE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HRS. ACTIVITY NOW ACROSS SWRN SD/WRN NE
PANHANDLE MAY DEVELOP A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL IN TIME THROUGH STORM
INTERACTIONS/MERGERS. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE AND TRAVEL SEWD INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. AS A RESULT...SEVERE THREAT MAY FAVOR DMGG WIND
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL NE.
..SMITH.. 07/25/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...
41079930 42250469 43090525 44130549 45010377 45760197
45950074 45760030 43489933 42009874 41389881
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