MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1969

ACUS11 KWNS 310242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310242
NDZ000-310415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1969
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 310242Z - 310415Z

SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF WW 775 BETWEEN 03-04Z. A REPLACEMENT WW
MAY BE NECESSARY.

AS OF 0225Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS OVER RENVILLE...WARD AND MCLEAN COUNTIES IN WRN ND
MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 35-40 KT. ELSEWHERE...AN APPARENT SUPERCELL
WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 N OF MOT MOVING MORE SEWD TOWARD THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE ND STORMS ARE NOW CROSSING A
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE /ORIENTED IN N-S FASHION/ DELINEATING A
HOTTER AND DEEPER-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON FROM A COOLER AIR MASS EMANATING FROM SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AS SUCH...ONGOING STORMS MAY TEND TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH TIME...DRIVEN LARGELY BY STRENGTHENING
WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPING FROM WRN NEB INTO THE
CNTRL DAKOTAS. MOREOVER...DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN MT SHOULD SERVE TO FURTHER
ENHANCE THIS TSTM ACTIVITY EWD ACROSS ND OVERNIGHT.

CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A STRONGER CAP IN PLACE FARTHER TO THE S
ACROSS SD SHOULD LIMIT THE MAJORITY OF OVERNIGHT TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO
N OF THE SD/ND BORDER.

..MEAD.. 07/31/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

47600174 48570167 48900056 48989888 48759771 48029742
47219771 46629837 46440003 46910158

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