DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190533
SWODY1
SPC AC 190530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN
FL......

...SRN AND ERN FLORIDA...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO
MOVE INLAND AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL DURING THE
DAY. EAST OF FAYS CENTER...LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
QUITE STRONG WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS RAINBANDS MOVE NWD ALONG THE ECNTRL FL
COAST.

...CNTRL AND ERN TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NW TX LATE TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY ESEWD INTO NCNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS ECNTRL AND SCNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE
ACROSS SE TX AND THE UPPER TX COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE ABOUT 30 KT WHICH MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER-ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS ALTHOUGH THE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.

...NRN ID/WRN AND CNTRL MT...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS NRN ID INTO WRN MT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO NCNTRL MT BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN WRN MT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
INSUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...A FEW MULTICELLS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES/GRAMS.. 08/19/2008

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