SWODY1
SPC AC 220534
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN FL...SE GA...AND SRN
SC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN MN THROUGH NWRN WI...
...SRN SC THROUGH SE GA AND NERN FL...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO CONTINUE VERY SLOWLY
WWD ACROSS N FL FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP NERN FL...SERN GA AND THE SC
COAST IN A FAVORABLE QUADRANT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS
STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS BEFORE MOVING INLAND.
...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
LEAD IMPULSE WILL EJECT NEWD INTO MANITOBA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MT ADVANCES EWD AND INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. A
SSWLY 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND ADVECT MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED. ZONE OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER
FORCING AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING VORT MAX WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET
ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30-40 KT IN FRONTAL ZONE...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING.
...CNTRL PLAINS...
OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT IN SRN NEB OR NRN KS
WHERE LIFT MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BREACH THE CAP. THESE AREAS WILL BE
SOUTH OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL
STORMS. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
..DIAL/GRAMS.. 08/22/2008
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