SWODY1
SPC AC 291228
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008
VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH THE REINFORCEMENT FROM CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS HAVE PUSHED THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE S OF
THE PRIMARY WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. AS A RESULT WHILE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN GOOD SUPPLY FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WIND SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE SUPPORTIVE
OF PRIMARILY PULSE STORMS.
...LOWER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY WWD ACROSS OK TO LEE OF SRN ROCKIES...
WAVY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM LOWER OH RIVER WWD TO ACROSS NRN OK TO
ERN NM WILL MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER S BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY NEAR 70F MUCH OF THIS AREA VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY...SCATTERED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM THRU THE LOW 90S
AND MLCAPES CLIMB TO AOA 2000 J/KG. BEING FAR REMOVED FROM THE
WESTERLIES TO THE N...DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10KT OR SO...INDICATING THE PULSE MODE WILL BE DOMINANT
TODAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WET MICRO BURSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE VICINITY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY STABILIZES.
...SWRN DESERTS...
LARGE/SEVERE MCS WHICH FORMED OVER SCENTRAL AZ AND SPREAD WWD TO SRN
CA MTNS THU HAS TEMPORARILY REDUCED INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR TODAY. SINCE 25-30KT OF ELY STEERING FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AZ AND THE AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE FROM HIGHER TO LOWER ELEVATIONS BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY
AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL LIKELY NOT BE COMPLETELY REMOVED BY
HEATING...LESSENING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
..HALES/DIAL.. 08/29/2008
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