SWODY1
SPC AC 081253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT FRI AUG 08 2008
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO AB/SK...WHILE
TROUGHS CONTINUE OFF THE N PACIFIC CST...AND FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE
NERN STATES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE...SSW/NNE-
ORIENTED COLD FRONT IN WA/ORE...SFC BOUNDARIES WILL BE WEAK.
...ERN WA/ORE INTO NRN RCKYS TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DEEP SSW FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PAC NW AND NRN RCKYS...AHEAD OF SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH OFF THE WA CST. WV DATA SHOW A DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW NOW
OVER ERN ORE THAT SHOULD CONTINUE NNE INTO NRN ID LATER TODAY.
UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT BETTER-DEFINED IMPULSE NOW ENTERING NRN CA
SHOULD REACH NE ORE/ERN WA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE REGION IN THE LAST TWO DAYS /PW NOW
AOA 1 INCH FROM ORE INTO ID AND MUCH OF MT/...AND MID LVL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN FAIRLY STEEP. CLOUDS FROM LEAD UPR IMPULSE
WILL...HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT LIMIT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY
IN ID. BUT SUFFICIENT BREAKS SHOULD EXIST TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE
HEATING IN MOST AREAS. DESPITE WEAK NEAR-SFC WINDS...30-40 KT DEEP
SSWLY FLOW WILL YIELD MODERATE SHEAR. COUPLED WITH SBCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OR BANDS OF
SUSTAINED STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTN
INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCTD STORMS COULD AFFECT NE ORE
AND ERN WA...THE STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN
CNTRL/NRN ID INTO WRN MT.
...NY/SRN NEW ENG TODAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF NY...NRN PA...AND NEW ENG TODAY. THE MOST CONCENTRATED
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM UPR IMPULSE NOW N OF LK ERIE
AS THAT FEATURE CONTINUES E/SE AROUND BROADER TROUGH INTO SRN NY/NRN
PA. COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES /AOB MINUS 16 C AT 500 MB/...RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F/...AND SFC HEATING
SHOULD YIELD POCKETS OF SBCAPE AOA 1500 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR
WITHIN BROAD UPR TROUGH...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCTD
PULSE STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OVERALL
INTENSITY AND SCOPE OF SVR THREAT SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED AND DIURNAL.
...TX/LA AND FL/GA THIS AFTN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT...AUGMENTED BY OUTFLOW BY EARLIER STORMS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY S/SE TO NEAR THE S ATLANTIC AND NE GULF CSTS
BY THIS AFTN. THE WRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SW FROM E TX
TOWARD CNTRL TX. BOTH INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD NEAR
THE FRONT SHOULD BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO THURSDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...HI PW AND AREAS OF STRONG HEATING/STEEPENED LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS OVER N FL AND/OR E TX.
...CNTRL HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT...
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER WRN CO...ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME...WILL CREST THE UPR RIDGE AND DRIFT E TO THE CNTRL
HI PLNS BY THIS EVE. DIURNAL STORMS SHOULD CONCENTRATE AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE UT AND CO.
STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP/INCREASE SE ALONG STALLING SFC FRONT INTO
THE HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE
MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT BY INTO WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF NEB/KS AND POSSIBLY
NW OK AS SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER REGION. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY
ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND THREAT LIMITED IN SPACE/TIME.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 08/08/2008
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