DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151623
SWODY1
SPC AC 151620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2008

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH
ANOTHER AND SMALLER UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS RESULTS IN WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. TWO AREAS
ARE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TODAY: THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS INTO PARTS EASTERN VA/MD...DE/NJ...AND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DEWPOINTS IN THIS AREA REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID
60S WHICH WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF
INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST PA INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
VA/NC AND SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD. 20-30 KNOTS OF CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SEVERAL WEAK
IMPULSES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL POSE A THREAT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THREAT AREA...WITH A LESSENING THREAT
OF HAIL FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET DUE TO A LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MID LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARD REGION.
MEANWHILE...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ALSO INCREASES BY LATER THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEAST
CO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS FROM THE RATON
RIDGE SOUTHWARD. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS OVER THIS REGION WHICH WILL RETARD DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THESE
STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. EASTWARD EXTENT OF THREAT INTO WEST TX WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THIS
EVENING.

..HART/JEWELL.. 08/15/2008

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