SWODY1
SPC AC 071610
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT THU AUG 07 2008
VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
STATES EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND...
...CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES EWD TO THE CAROLINAS...
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH LEVEL
WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN GULF COASTAL STATES AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SWD
INTO THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT ONLY 20-30 KT...STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING...DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE GREATER IN MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS...SUCH AS THE ONE
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NRN AL...THAT DEVELOP COLD POOLS AND FORWARD
PROPAGATE. STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO SEVERAL STRONG STORM
CLUSTERS FROM MS EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK
SHEAR ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD RESULT
IN MORE DISORGANIZED AND PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS. SINCE STORMS
WILL BE PRIMARILY THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...SURFACE COOLING AND
STORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD RESULT IN ALL STORMS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AROUND SUNSET.
...ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE NERN STATES
THIS MORNING WITH 500MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -12 TO -16C. HEATING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA THIS MORNING ...AND MLCAPES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD FROM WRN PA/NY...AND SHOULD
PROVIDE FAVORABLE LIFT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY
EVENING. DESPITE WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER 2KM...20-30 KT MID LEVEL
FLOW...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.
..AZ...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITH MOIST
MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
WITH SOME STORMS MOVING SLOWLY WWD INTO THE VALLEY/DESERT AREAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK WINDS/SHEAR FAVOR DISORGANIZED AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS...THOUGH DEEP/WELL-MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AND
MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
...NWRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OREGON/SERN WA...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NWD THROUGH NRN
CA. WITH WARMING...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
..IMY/GRAMS.. 08/07/2008
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