SWODY1
SPC AC 221248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE S ATLANTIC
CSTL PLN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
ERN MT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO WRN MN THIS EVE
BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NW ONTARIO EARLY SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN T.S. FAY /NOW OVER NRN FL/
MAINTAINING A GENERAL WLY TRACK THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
...ERN SC INTO SRN GA/NRN FL...
SFC OBSERVATIONS...LIGHTNING DATA...AND LONG COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS
TOGETHER SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE-RICH/HIGH THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD W ACROSS THE SC/GA AND N FL CSTL PLN AS T.S. FAY MOVES
SLOWLY WWD. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY. BUT WITH EVEN MODEST HEATING...INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE
MAY SUPPORT A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE
STORMS/SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TORNADOES. THIS THREAT TODAY SHOULD BE
GREATEST INVOF OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS OVER CSTL GA/SC...ALONG AXIS
OF STRONGEST /50 KT/ ESELY 850 MB FLOW.
...UPR MS VLY...
WEAK LEAD IMPULSE AND WAA AREA ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS IN
ND SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO MB LATER THIS MORNING AS MAIN UPR TROUGH
NOW OVER ERN MT PROGRESSES MORE SLOWLY E ACROSS ND. COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANYING MAIN IMPULSE WILL REACH CNTRL/ERN MN EARLY THIS
EVENING. STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL BE
PROHIBITED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS DPVA/FRONTAL UPLIFT OVERCOME
STRONG EML CAP. ONCE STORMS DO FORM...MOST LIKELY OVER ERN MN AND
WRN WI...THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED ACTIVITY AS 50+ KT WSWLY MID LVL FLOW
OVERSPREADS MOISTENING 30-40 KT SSWLY LLJ. WITH SBCAPE APPROACHING
2000 J/KG...A FEW STORMS COULD YIELD SVR HAIL. THE MAIN SVR THREAT
SHOULD...HOWEVER...BE DMGG WIND FROM BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH MID EVENING.
...CNTRL PLNS...
STORMS ALSO MAY FORM LATE THIS AFTN FARTHER S AND W ALONG COLD
FRONT...FROM SW IA INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS AND ERN CO. THESE MAY
PERSIST/INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT AS SLY LLJ NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENS. THE REGION WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN WELL S OF THE WLYS
AND DEEP SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. SETUP MAY NEVERTHELESS SUPPORT STRONG
MULTICELL/PULSE STRUCTURES WITH ISOLD DMGG WIND/HAIL GIVEN MODERATE
INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FOCUSED LOW LVL ASCENT.
..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 08/22/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment