DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310050
SWODY1
SPC AC 310048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2008

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND ADJACENT
S FL...

...S FL AND THE KEYS...
EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV HAS REACHED THE NRN CUBA COAST ATTM...WITH
LATEST NHC FORECASTS SHOWING GUSTAV CONTINUING ON A NWWD TRACK INTO
THE OPEN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

WHILE STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OFF THE U.S. COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ENHANCED WIND FIELD WITHIN THE NERN QUADRANT OF
THE STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE KEYS AND ADJACENT S
FL. LATEST VWP FROM KEY WEST -- AND TO A LESSER DEGREE MIAMI --
REVEAL ENHANCED/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR FOR ROTATION. THUS -- AS CELLULAR CONVECTION WITHIN THE OUTER
BANDS CONTINUES SHIFTING NWWD ACROSS THE KEYS AND SRN FL...THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...MT...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY -- GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE -- IS INDICATED ACROSS MT ATTM...INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS WRN MT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MT...THOUGH THE OVERALL LACK OF
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED STORM INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.

LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS HOWEVER...AS LACK
OF INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT COMPENSATED FOR BY FAVORABLY-STRONG FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THIS AREA. THUS...A FEW CELLS MAY ORGANIZE BRIEFLY
THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL.

...AZ...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS AZ --
PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE STATE.
HERE...MIXED-LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONGER CELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND/OR
MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...NC...
A FEW STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
ERN NC...NEAR WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION WITHIN MODERATELY-UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WHILE STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER FEATURE...ANY LINGERING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNALLY-STABILIZING AIRMASS.

..GOSS.. 08/31/2008

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